this issue we talk charitable giving and avoiding
scams along with general market commentary.
of crooks masquerading as charities:
is normal to feel compelled to help out in a time
of local or national disaster. For many of us
that means opening the wallet and making a contribution
to a charitable organization. Unfortunately, criminals
know that it's very easy to con people out of
their money by masquerading as a charitable relief
normal way these phony organizations work is by
phoning consumers and acting as the official relief
organization for a particular recent disaster.
They will generally try to solicit your donation
right then and get you to hand over your credit
you haven't heard of the organization or the phone
rep is being a bit pushy, tell them you don't
make donations over the phone until you confirm
the status of the organization. A quick trip to
the computer will give you all the information
that you need: a Google search of the charity
should turn up information if it is indeed a legitimate
charity. There is also a website: www.give.org
(run by the Better Business Bureau) that will
let you check on a charity as well.
in doubt the American Red Cross is always the
first humanitarian responder to disasters and
is worthy of your donations. You can access their
homepage at: www.redcross.org
which allows you to donate nationally or enter
your zipcode and find your local chapter to contribute
last months e-newsletter I stated the following:
"Overall, I am cautious. The easy money has
been made off of the March lows. Unless we get
some shifts in the above indicators I am content
to maintain current allocations which include
about 20% cash positions." In looking back
over the past 4 weeks, it was the right call but
I definitely did not see the sharp drop we have
witnessed. The question becomes now "where
do we go from here?".
the headlines screaming: oil and gas prices are
soaring, housing prices are dropping, the midwest
is flooding and the northpole is melting, it is
very easy to get the doom and gloom mindset. My
advice? Turn off your television. As a realist
it is obvious that this market is going to take
time to purge the excesses of years of credit
expansion. It is a painful process that has seen
financial stocks pummeled and the dollar devalued.
(which is one of the reasons for soaring commodity
prices) The good thing is that when it's finished
the market will regroup and our economy will be
better than ever.
the near term there is the strong probability
of a rally after the sharp selloff we have seen.
The challenge will be where we head after this.
For those of you that like statistics here is
a link that shows the 20 worst months of the S&P
and where the index was a few months afterwards.
Odds are in our favor for a Summer bounce: http://www.minyanville.com/articles/S-P-djia-market-depression-great/index/a/17814
term will depend on where oil and commodity prices
are headed. Like every bubble, oil will eventually
come back down. Don't believe me? the following
is a chart of the Nasdaq bubble, Homebuilding
stock bubble, China stock bubble and lastly the
oil bubble. In every bubble environment we are
told "this time is different". I will
believe that only when it proves true.
a safe and happy 4th of July!